Evolution of Minds

A few years ago, a robin staked claim to our front yard. He spent his mornings pecking at our windows and pooping on our porch furniture to make sure that the robin pecking back at him (reflected in the window) knew who's boss of this place. Just like international politics except politicians poop bombs.

A few years ago, Obama was set to bomb Syria over the use of chemical weapons. He asked for the approval of congress. Congress said he should keep his pants on. Obama kept his pants on. Some time later Trump was set to bomb Iran. Trump learned from Obama that you don't ask for permission. You just drop your bombs, and then enjoy a beautiful piece of chocolate cake while waiting for the news to break. That's progress, or maybe regress, depending on your politics.

I'm not being critical. I don't know who's right and who's wrong because it's complicated. When we have complicated decisions to make we can proceed in a variety of ways. I will digress here to explain something I learned from a book by Daniel Dennett, “From Bacteria to Bach and Back: The Evolution of Minds.” I can't explain it as well as Dennett does, but since you are reading my blog instead of Dennett's, here is my summary.

Consciousness has evolved through four stages.

The Darwinian stage in which the competence of a mind is altered randomly by genetic mutation, and changes are selected or rejected based on how they effect the fitness of the individual. Progress is unplanned, costly (most mutations don't survive), and slow, but also impressive (evolution is smarter than we are). The results are inherited as instincts by the progeny of successful mutants. Competence develops slowly over millions of years without comprehension.

The Skinnerian stage in which behavior is not fully prescribed by instinct. At this level one has scope to try alternative actions at random and learn which actions are more productive. Learning from experience produces lots of failures along with some successes, but the results accrue within an individual lifetime.

The Popperian stage in which actions are tested in imagination before they are acted upon. This makes success more probable and more quickly attainable even on the first try.

The Gregorian stage which employs learning tools, such as language, books, libraries, the Internet, controlled experiments, theories, mathematics, logic, and models, to improve the reliability of predictions and accumulate the results of experience so that they can be passed on to others.

It would be nice if leaders who were entrusted with the most momentous decisions functioned at the highest level of consciousness. This is not to say that leaders should always ignore their instincts, avoid taking chances, repress their imagination, and wait for evidence and expert consensus before acting.

“Mr. President, there are 90 missiles with nuclear warheads heading our way. What shall we do?”

“We should gather our best minds and study the situation. Perhaps we should award research grants.”
Or not.

It takes time to sort out our instinctive reactions, imagine and try things, accumulate and evaluate experience, and develop knowledge with comprehension. I am guessing (no proof) that the less time we have to make decisions, the more we revert from comprehension to instinct.

A second hypothesis: larger collectives regress from comprehension to instinct in the same way. Therefore, when whole nations are threatened, their actions are likely to be decided at the gut level.

The future is not in capable hands. Angry birds pecking and pooping to assert dominance would do as well. If we function internationally at the Darwinian level, there are no guarantees; quite the opposite. We are just another species scrabbling to survive and much more likely to go extinct.